Abstract & Overview
Abstract China has the largest energy system in the world, with fossil energy accounting for 84%. The carbon neutrality target calls for peaking carbon emissions by 2030 and achieving net zero carbon emissions by 2060. By then, the non-fossil energy will account for over 80% of China’s energy mix. Based on China’s national conditions, this paper makes scenario analysis of carbon peaking in 2030. The results of this paper indicate that the peak values of carbon emission in 2030 depends on both the development of clean energy and the growth of energy power demand. Therefore, the growth rate of the two should be balanced to control the peak carbon emission. High-quality economic growth in China in the context of carbon neutrality requires “double decoupling”, namely, decoupling GDP from the consumption of fossil energy and the growth of energy power demand as much as possible. To this end, this paper proposes a systematic solution considering both the demand and supply sides, with market-oriented measures that are workable for it. Ensuring the safe and stable supply of energy (power) is the basic principle of clean and low-carbon economic transformation, as well as a major challenge for energy system transformation. Therefore, it is necessary to develop a path for coal power decommissioning and low-carbon transformation in line with China’s national conditions.