Abstract & Overview
The article is devoted to the problem of tax incentives for sustainable development in the Russian Far East – a vast region dealing with significant demographic and environmental challenges. To solve this problem, the study applied methods of mathematical modeling. We built a hybrid mathematical model of the Far East development based on the principles of agent-based and system-dynamic approaches, implemented in AnyLogic 8.0 simulation modelling program. The model’s accuracy was confirmed by comparing its predictions with actual data from 2010 to 2021. The result of the study is the construction and interpretation of several scenarios of regional development involving different types of tax incentive policies: investment-oriented tax incentives to stimulate specific growth poles, increased budgetary spending with a social focus funded by taxes on future generations, higher environmental taxes, and a combination of different incentives. The main conclusions from the experiments showed that none of the tax incentive scenarios is a panacea. The most effective tool has proven to be targeted investment-oriented tax incentives for residents of special economic zones. Nevertheless, these incentives do not automatically solve the region’s sustainable development challenges stemming from the existing environmental constraints. In addition, the tax policy options under consideration are limited by demographic problems in the Far East, which adversely affect the rates of technological change and economic growth. From a practical standpoint, it can be concluded that a strategic tax policy in question should be based on a more comprehensive approach, employing mutually reinforcing tax incentives for innovation and investment in special economic zones and environmental incentives, capable of gradually improve the environmental situation. Further research in the field of tax policy of the Russian Far East should be directed to the search for measures of fiscal regulation of not only economic, but also demographic and environmental problems of the region in a complex.